Below are climatological probability maps for observed rainfall burst events between October and April. These are the probability that a burst will occur in a specific week or fortnight, with each week and fortnight starting at 3 day increments during the month (i.e., 1st, 4th, 7th,.., 28th). El Niño (La Niña) years are determined by the Oceanic Niño Index being above 0.5°C (below -0.5°C) for 5 consecutive overlapping seasons (Oct-Dec, Nov-Jan, Dec-Feb, Jan-Mar, Feb-Apr), based on Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST-v5) anomalies in the Niño3.4 region.

Throughout the wet season, the observed likelihood of a burst event over northern Australia is higher during a La Niña year compared to a El Niño year. In the shoulder wet season months (e.g., October, November, April), given the rare nature of heavy bursts, the observed burst climatology for 50 mm or 70 mm events is close to zero (white).